March 24 – Forecasting COVID-19 in Mississippi

The data released over the past two days shows a promising trend for COVID-19 cases in Mississippi. Over the past two days, the growth rate in new cases has dropped dramatically. Instead of following a trend line of 60% daily growth (yellow line), the actual number of cases has dropped below the 50% daily growth (blue line). So, if you see what happens to the actual number of cases (red line) over the past couple of days, you find that we seem to be making progress in flattening the curve. This is good news since my last post talked about why this week could be an important turning point for the state of Mississippi.

The past two days indicate that we may have slowed the growth rate of new cases to between 25% and 30% per day. Take a look at how this forecast impacts the outlook over the next week. Although 2,000 confirmed cases in Mississippi is still significant, it is much better than the 7,000 – 15,000 cases that the previous growth rate projected. Thanks to all the residents who are doing their part to slow the growth rate and to all those medical professionals caring for the sick.

Forecasted COVID-19 cases in Mississippi over the next 7 days.

Disclaimer

I am not a medical doctor, a healthcare specialist, biologist, or public health professional. I am a trained financial economist building an economist growth model and explaining the impact of personal and policy outcomes on that model.

March 22 – Forecasting COVID-19 in Mississippi

Just a quick update with the latest data. Today there are 207 reported cases of COVID-19 in Mississippi. While that may not seem like very may cases, stop for a minute and remember that just four days ago there were 34 cases. The number of reported cases continues to grow about 50%-60% from the previous day. At that rate, we can expect over 300 total cases tomorrow and over 3,000 by next weekend.

Growth of COVID-19 in Mississippi over the last 5 days

The red line shows the actual number of reported cases in Mississippi. You can see that the trend over the past five days has been closer to the 60% daily growth rate (yellow line) than the 50% daily growth rate (blue line). Continuing along this trend line over the next week means that may people are going to be startled by the number of new cases each day. Yet, the math has been here forecasting the whole time. Please heed the warnings of our leaders and do your part to slow the spread.

Disclaimer

I am not a medical doctor, a healthcare specialist, biologist, or public health professional. I am a trained financial economist building an economist growth model and explaining the impact of personal and policy outcomes on that model.

March 21 – Forecasting COVID-19 in Mississippi

This morning we found out there are now 140 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Mississippi. This is a 60% daily jump over the previous day. This chart shows the daily growth in COVID-19 cases in Mississippi since March 18. The blue line is the 50% daily growth rate, which equates to the number of cases doubling every two days. The yellow line is 60% daily growth. The red line shows the actual number of reported cases in Mississippi over the past few days. You can see that we are trending closer to the yellow line than the blue line. This is not surprising because the testing capacity and capabilities have improved. It also, however, means that we should be prepared for some surprising jumps in the number of cases over the next week. At this rate, we’ll reach 357 cases by Monday and 2,336 cases by Friday. 

Following growth of COVID-19 in Mississippi over 4 days

Certainly, diagnosing more cases is an important step towards slowing the overall spread across the state. Unfortunately, I think we also need to keep in mind that we have no measure of how many people have been infected with coronavirus but are not being tested. We will probably never know how many people actually have the virus right now, but there are certainly many more than 140. This is true in every state and every country reporting data. I’ve received firsthand reports of this from several countries. In fact, this morning my mother shared the news that a friend’s husband went to a triage tent outside a NJ hospital and was told that he most certainly had COVID-19, but they were not even going to bother testing him. Instead, he was told to go home and self-isolate unless his condition deteriorated significantly. It seems likely that Mississippi could be just a few days away from a similar reality. So, be careful and stay safe.

Click here to see my first post about growth rates.

Click here to see yesterday’s post about slowing the growth rate.

Disclaimer

I am not a medical doctor, a healthcare specialist, biologist, or public health professional. I am a trained financial economist building an economist growth model and explaining the impact of personal and policy outcomes on that model.