March 22 – Forecasting COVID-19 in Mississippi

Just a quick update with the latest data. Today there are 207 reported cases of COVID-19 in Mississippi. While that may not seem like very may cases, stop for a minute and remember that just four days ago there were 34 cases. The number of reported cases continues to grow about 50%-60% from the previous day. At that rate, we can expect over 300 total cases tomorrow and over 3,000 by next weekend.

Growth of COVID-19 in Mississippi over the last 5 days

The red line shows the actual number of reported cases in Mississippi. You can see that the trend over the past five days has been closer to the 60% daily growth rate (yellow line) than the 50% daily growth rate (blue line). Continuing along this trend line over the next week means that may people are going to be startled by the number of new cases each day. Yet, the math has been here forecasting the whole time. Please heed the warnings of our leaders and do your part to slow the spread.


I am not a medical doctor, a healthcare specialist, biologist, or public health professional. I am a trained financial economist building an economist growth model and explaining the impact of personal and policy outcomes on that model.

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