March 24 – Forecasting COVID-19 in Mississippi

The data released over the past two days shows a promising trend for COVID-19 cases in Mississippi. Over the past two days, the growth rate in new cases has dropped dramatically. Instead of following a trend line of 60% daily growth (yellow line), the actual number of cases has dropped below the 50% daily growth (blue line). So, if you see what happens to the actual number of cases (red line) over the past couple of days, you find that we seem to be making progress in flattening the curve. This is good news since my last post talked about why this week could be an important turning point for the state of Mississippi.

The past two days indicate that we may have slowed the growth rate of new cases to between 25% and 30% per day. Take a look at how this forecast impacts the outlook over the next week. Although 2,000 confirmed cases in Mississippi is still significant, it is much better than the 7,000 – 15,000 cases that the previous growth rate projected. Thanks to all the residents who are doing their part to slow the growth rate and to all those medical professionals caring for the sick.

Forecasted COVID-19 cases in Mississippi over the next 7 days.

Disclaimer

I am not a medical doctor, a healthcare specialist, biologist, or public health professional. I am a trained financial economist building an economist growth model and explaining the impact of personal and policy outcomes on that model.

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